A league desk is a fairly useful barometer of every staff’s fortunes. That’s why we use it to resolve the place groups end on the finish of the season. Nevertheless, league tables don’t inform us the entire story. Arsenal are prime in actuality (nearly), however they won’t be in all of our different Premier League tables.
First half v second half
Soccer is most actually a sport of two halves. It could not come as a lot of a shock to be taught the desk adjustments fairly drastically when taking a look at first-half or second-half ends in isolation.
Some groups will probably be fitter or mentally stronger than others, and this will contribute to them being higher in second halves. Equally, others are extra fired up within the first half and this will contribute to them operating out of steam later.
place to begin is with Manchester Metropolis. You would possibly keep in mind that, throughout their first six league video games of 2026, they didn’t rating a single objective within the second half of matches – they did rating six first-half objectives, nonetheless.
That could be very a lot in line with their first-half superiority over the entire season. If we solely thought-about outcomes at half-time, Metropolis can be 9 factors away from Arsenal on the summit. But when we have a look at second halves in isolation, they’d drop to sixth, 13 factors behind Arsenal.
However that’s not the starkest distinction. Manchester United go from fourth within the first-half desk to thirteenth within the second-half desk; Aston Villa are thirteenth within the first, second within the second; West Ham slide all the way in which from tenth within the half-time desk to twentieth within the second-half standings (albeit with a sport in hand on Wolves).
It will appear there’s a slight correlation between groups who do properly within the second half and people which might be youthful; the highest 10 of the second-half desk (26 years, 91 days) are, on common, 224 days youthful (beginning XIs solely) than these within the backside 10 (26 years, 315 days). This won’t be sufficient to leap to conclusions, although.
There’s additionally sport state to think about. If a staff is successful at half-time by a minimum of two clear objectives, they don’t have to ‘win’ the second half as properly. For instance, Manchester Metropolis led Fulham 3-0 on the break final week, which is how the sport finishes, so that they technically solely drew the second half. With the three factors already within the bag, the hosts didn’t have to bust a intestine to attain once more.
Say goodbye to stoppage time
Premier League referees are including an increasing number of stoppage time on the finish of matches. It’s not uncommon to see eight, 9 and even 10 minutes proven on the fourth official’s board across the ninetieth minute. However what if video games ended on the 90-minute mark? Stoppage-time objectives wouldn’t be a factor and that will influence sure golf equipment.
Leeds, as an example, can be 5 locations higher off in tenth if we eliminated all objectives scored after the ninetieth minute. That’s as a result of they’ve conceded 9 within the league this season, greater than anybody else. Everton and Fulham, nonetheless, would every drop three locations if their stoppage-time objectives had been immediately taken away from them.
Liverpool have had an issue with late concessions, however they’ve additionally scored a couple of, so they’d solely be two factors higher off if stoppage-time objectives had been eliminated. Nonetheless, that will be sufficient to place them fourth, buying and selling locations with Manchester United.
Out with set items
Set items are so stylish for the time being, however what if groups simply didn’t trouble with them? Admittedly, we’re requiring you to actually stretch your creativeness right here, however that’s the purpose of our different tables.
So, on this alternate universe, objectives from set items and penalties aren’t a factor, and it in all probability gained’t take you lengthy to work out who would lose out essentially the most in such a dimension.
Arsenal’s factors whole would lower by eight with out objectives from set items and penalties. In spite of everything, 21 of their 52 objectives within the league this time period have come from set performs and spot-kicks.
Aston Villa would even be huge losers, seeing their factors whole cut back by seven, whereas Everton and Sunderland would every miss out on six.
The most important winners can be Burnley as they’ve solely scored 9 set-piece or penalty objectives however have conceded 19. Different beneficiaries can be Brighton and Bournemouth, the latter of whom have let in additional set-piece/penalty objectives than some other staff this time period (20).
(Re)shifting the goalposts
What if each shot that hit the publish or crossbar truly went in? It’s a light-hearted hypothetical, so don’t take it too critically. The purpose is to indicate how high quality the margins are. In spite of everything, the width of a goalpost or crossbar is 12 centimetres, although the curvature of the objective body means it’s barely much less in actuality – as such, a staff can feasibly miss out on a title, European place or security by a matter of centimetres.
In fact, groups additionally profit from having their very own publish/crossbar struck, it’s not only a one-way avenue. However it doesn’t occur in equal measure.
It stands to purpose that the higher groups would possibly profit extra in our hypothetical woodwork desk. Higher groups typically have extra pictures and face fewer than the worst sides, so that they’re extra prone to hit the publish/crossbar than their opponents.
However Arsenal can be among the many largest losers in a world with out goalposts. Fulham would lose essentially the most factors (5), adopted by Aston Villa (4), however then it’s Arsenal (three). That may see them drop down to 3rd within the desk as a result of we additionally need to consider the outputs of different groups. Manchester Metropolis would acquire 4 factors to go prime, and Manchester United earn an additional 10 factors to shoot as much as second, forward of Arsenal on objective distinction.
United have hit the woodwork 18 occasions within the league this season, 4 greater than some other staff. Additionally, solely Brentford (three) and Chelsea (six) have seen their very own publish/bar hit much less typically than United (seven).
What does all of it imply, then? Properly, we put it someplace between every little thing and nothing. The precise Premier League desk will proceed to reign supreme, although these options a minimum of serve to remind us of the game’s rollercoaster nature and that there’s typically extra to it than meets the attention.
That is an article by Opta Analyst
Thanks for studying! Be a part of our neighborhood at Spectator Daily
